NCI Research

Current Research Questions

-How do people integrate binomial data when using multiple samples to make an inference?

-Does sensitivity to binomial variability depend on numerical ability?

-Under what circumstances do base rates affect how sample data are weighted?

-What is the functional form of sample size sensitivity?



Obrecht, N.A. [1] & Chesney, D. L. (in press). Sample representativeness affects whether judgments are influenced by base rate or sample size. Acta Psychologica.

Chesney, D. L. & Obrecht, N.A. [1] (2012). Statistical judgments are influenced by the implied likelihood that samples represent the same population. Memory & Cognition, 40, 420-433.

Obrecht, N. A. [1], Anderson, B, Schulkin, J., & Chapman, G. B. (2012). Retrospective frequency formats promote consistent experience-based Bayesian judgments. Applied Cognitive Psychology 26, 436-440.

Anderson, B.L., Obrecht, N.A., Chapman, G. B., Driscoll, D., & Schulkin J. (2011). Physicians' communication of Down syndrome screening test results: The influence of physician numeracy. Genetics in Medicine, 13, 744-749.

Chesney, D. L. & Obrecht, N.A. (2011). Adults are sensitive to variance when making likelihood judgments. In L. Carlson, C. Hölscher, & T. Shipley (Eds.),  Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (3134-3139). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Obrecht, N. A., Chapman, G. B., & Suárez, M. T. (2010). Laypeople do use sample variance: The effect of embedding data in a variance-implying story. Thinking & Reasoning, 16, 26-44.

Obrecht, N. A., Chapman, G. B., & Gelman, R. (2009). An encounter frequency account of how experience affects likelihood estimation. Memory & Cognition, 37, 632-643.

Obrecht, N. A., Chapman, G. B., & Gelman, R. (2007). Intuitive t-tests: Lay use of statistical information. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 14, 1147-1152.


[1]Manuscript supported by a Summer Research Stipend awarded to N. Obrecht by the Research Center for the Humanities and Social Sciences at William Paterson University